Canadian Federal Elections 2025
5 April 2025
We have analysed speeches, manifestos and, crucially, voting records in the compilation of this chart. As the campaign proceeds, the chart will be amended to reflect policy changes and other relevant developments.
While the volume of correspondence prohibits us from engaging in communications concerning particular placements, all emails are nevertheless carefully read.
Donald Trump has changed everything everywhere — especially in Canada.
In January the polls for both the ruling Liberal Party and prime minister Justin Trudeau had plummeted. Then along came Trump’s tariff threats and staggering talk of Canada becoming the 51st state, with a forthright response from Trudeau before he stepped down. The Liberals’ new leader, Mark Carney, has been robust and statesmanlike in dealing with Washington’s dizzying bluster, and rescuing the party from the electoral doldrums. A political outsider, Carney’s previous positions as Head of the Bank of England and then of the Bank of Canada during the fiscal crisis of 2008 suggest that he’s better placed to deal with inflation of both prices at home and egos across the border.
Rallying around the flag is what this election is mostly about. Against all recent odds, Carney is nudging ahead of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre in the polls. The outspoken Poilievre’s victory looked a certainty before Carney stepped in. He has been dented by Liberal attempts to portray him as a little Trump, and by Elon Musk’s expressions of enthusiasm. His attempts to shift the debate away from Trump and on to the housing crisis and much else haven’t been particularly successful.
To the Conservatives’ right is the far smaller Peoples Party, with an even stronger mix of social conservatism and libertarian economics that might have been expected to receive more praise from Washington. Populist party leader, Maxime Bernier, would probably have fared better in an ordinary election, but this is no ordinary election.
Carney’s work as a UN Climate Envoy may swing some Green Party votes his way, but the Greens traditionally perform most strongly at provincial level. Elizabeth May’s 15-year-long leadership is this time being shared with Jonathan Pedneault, who has an impressive background in activism for human rights
To Carney’s left is the New Democratic Party, which also has strong environmental policies, including radical reduction in carbon emissions. Traditionally focused on Labour issues, the NDP abandoned its support for the Trudeau Liberal administration, claiming that the party had caved in to corporate interests. NDB leader Jagmeet Singh faces an uphill battle for the progressive vote, given the Liberals’ rise in popularity.
Although the Quebec nationalist party, Bloc Québécois, only runs candidates in that province, its electoral result could affect the fortunes of other major parties hoping to form the next government.